Fitch Solutions has predicted that Ghana’s inflation rate will decline from 22.9% in 2024 to 18.8% in 2025. The expected drop will stem from lower global oil prices, which should allow the National Petroleum Authority to reduce or stabilize fuel prices.
The research firm noted that household consumption will continue to drive economic growth in the coming quarters. With inflation easing, consumer spending is projected to rise by 4.0%, contributing 3.2 percentage points to Ghana’s GDP in 2025.
Fitch also expects a better global food supply to reduce the cost of staples such as wheat and rice. These improvements will ease inflationary pressure and lower household expenses.
Strong gold prices will likely increase the Bank of Ghana’s reserves. This will support the local currency and help control imported inflation.
Looking ahead to 2026, Fitch forecasts average inflation to drop further to 15.2%, boosting consumer activity. The expected end of Ghana’s IMF program in May 2026 could also lead to looser fiscal policies and higher domestic demand.
For instance, when the last IMF deal ended in 2019, Ghana’s budget deficit widened from 3.4% to 4.1%, while total domestic demand jumped from 5.7% to 7.3%.
