The Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU), the research and analysis division of The Economist Group and world leader in global business and political intelligence is predicting a victory for the NDC in the 2020 elections if the party can establish a new unifying leadership and hold [ads1]the NPP government to its 2016 election promises.
The prediction is captured in the February 2018 edition of the EIU’s country report on Ghana under the sub-topic, ‘Election Watch’. It predicted the NPP Administration will struggle to meet its lofty pre-2016 election promises, especially in the area of job creation which will give the NDC an advantage in the 2020 election.
The EIU also predicts a possible defeat for the NPP because of President Akufo-Addo’s age by 2020. He will be 76 years by then and according to the EIU, if his health is not in good condition (by then), there may be calls for him to give way to a fresh face. This, the report said, may lead to infighting within the party which will put some Ghanaians off and lead to the NDC’s victory.
The EIU sounds the death knell for the NPP when by predicting a victory for the ruling party due to an improving economy only if it can honour its election promises especially creating jobs. The report reads;
“The next national elections are due at end-2020. Mr. Akufo-Addo and his NPP will spend the remainder of their terms in power presiding over a largely improving economic situation. Meanwhile, the NDC has been hit by serious in-fighting in the wake of its eviction from power, with the party now undergoing what is likely to be a painful restructuring. All this means that The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the NPP to secure re-election in 2020. However, this is not a foregone conclusion. If the NDC can quickly establish a new, unifying leadership and hold to account an NPP administration that will struggle to meet its lofty pre-2016 election promises (in terms of job creation, in particular), another change in power could occur. A further threat to the prospects of Mr Akufo-Addo is his age. He will be 76 in 2020, and depending on his health by then. He could face calls to stand down in favour of a fresh face. However, such a process would almost certainly lead to intra party tensions, which, given the NPP’s history of factionalism, would be off-putting to the electorate.”
While Ghana’s economy is not improving, the NPP administration is not only unable to meet its loft election promises but is already running away from them.
The party, in the run up to the December 7, 2016 election promised Ghanaians one dam in every village in the country. They also promised one factory in every district, US$1million for every constituency and reduction in import duties, cost of fuel and utilities. However, it has failed to deliver on these promises.
At a recent forum in the United Kingdom, Vice-President Mahamadu Bawumia said the NPP never promised US$ million for each constituency in Ghana. According to him, it was just a mere thought.
Minister for Information, Mustapha Hamid, speaking on Asempa FM’s ‘Eko sis en?” programme few days ago admitted the one factory for each district promise was not feasible. So far, not even a dam has been constructed in one village, a factory established in one district or a pesewa given to a single constituency.
In the area of job creation, the NPP government has rather created more unemployment by sacking from work hundreds of thousands of Ghanaians who they believe are supporters of the NDC. The axe of dismissal fell on even supporters of the NPP who were employed by the NDC government particularly in 2016.
With these, the EIU’s prediction of an NPP victory if the Akufo-Addo government can meet its 2016 election promises and create jobs is only sounding the death knell for the party.
The prediction does, however, not mean it is done and dusted for the NDC. The party has to ensure a less acrimonious reorganization process which so far, has been the case though it is early days yet. The delegates of the party at all levels also have to ensure a new leadership, particularly at the national level that will be able to unify the supporters. So far, the party, particularly, its representatives in parliament, have done well in keeping the NPP on its toes, unearthing scandal after scandal and exposing the NPP government badly.
SOURCE: DAILY POST
