The African Development Bank (AfDB) projects Ghana’s economy will grow by 4.5% in 2025, according to its African Economic Outlook report released during its Annual Meetings in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire.
The report outlines key macroeconomic indicators including GDP growth, inflation, fiscal performance, and debt ratios for member countries. For Ghana, the AfDB attributes the projected growth to increased mining activity, narrowing fiscal deficits through ongoing consolidation, and tighter monetary policy.
Growth is expected to improve further in 2026, with the GDP expanding by 4.8%.
Differing Projections
Ghana’s own 2025 budget, presented by Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson, forecasts a slightly lower growth rate of 4.0%. The World Bank predicts 3.9% growth in 2025, rising to 4.6% in 2026 and 4.8% in 2027.
Meanwhile, the IMF aligns with the government’s forecast, revising Ghana’s 2025 growth outlook to 4.0% in its Regional Economic Outlook.
Inflation Concerns
The AfDB projects inflation at 15.4% for 2025, higher than the Ministry of Finance’s 11.9% target and the Bank of Ghana’s 12% forecast. April 2025 inflation stood at 21%.
The IMF projects an even higher inflation rate of 17.5% for the same year. However, the AfDB is optimistic about 2026, projecting a return to single-digit inflation (9%) by year-end, aided by stable exchange rates and lower food prices.
Fiscal and External Outlook
Fiscal Deficit: Projected to narrow to 3.5% of GDP in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026, thanks to fiscal consolidation and improved public financial management.
Debt-to-GDP Ratio: Expected to decline to 66.4% in 2025, driven by debt restructuring and revenue gains.
Current Account Balance: Forecasted at 2.6% of GDP in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026, supported by strong oil and gold exports.
Risks Ahead
Despite the positive projections, the AfDB cautions that climate change, policy reversals, and global factors, such as U.S. tariff hikes, pose significant downside risks. The Bank emphasizes that sticking to fiscal discipline will be critical to sustaining growth and stability.
