When Ghana returned to multiparty democracy after more than a decade under military rule, two main political parties emerged. They captured the interest of the population, offering hope of a new beginning to many. The country has experienced its longest democratic period since independence during the fourth republic.
However, after 32 years, the duopoly of the two major political parties which subtly makes the country a two-party state is beginning to lose favour among the citizens. The citizens have cried sick and tired of the two and are clamouring for an unfamiliar face. Nevertheless, the two parties remain likely to govern Ghana for some time. The only change the people will see now is the eight reshuffle, a jinx both parties have been hopeful to break.
The parties; the National Democratic Congress (NDC) and the New Patriotic Party (NPP) have managed the nation’s affairs for the last 32 years. Each has taken 8 years in government, enabling a president to serve his full two terms. There have only been two instances where a President did not serve two full terms despite the party being in power for the period. That brings about the theme for this article, as a one-time president will be slugging it out directly with a sitting Vice President for the presidency.
The Desire for a New Face
Despite the growing demand for a third force in the political space to dilute the two-party supremacy, when over 13 million Ghanaians went to the polls in 2020, less than 1% voted for true change. According to the final results, 6.73 million voters trusted the NPP to continue in government while 6.21 million wished power to change hands back to the former President and his NDC. These statistics show that the NDC and NPP will continue to alternate as the first and second choices for Ghanaians at least for the foreseeable future. It does not, however, stop other emerging forces.
In election 2024, the general view is that the incumbent will be given a break to rest while their counterpart is substituted like in a football match. This has been the norm since the inception of the Fourth Republic 32 years ago. However, the question is what influences the choice of Ghanaian voters? Is it about keeping with tradition, buying into candidates’ ideas, and personalities or fatigue with the incumbent?
First NPP Government: abuse of power and corruption hub
From 2001 to 2008, President Kufour and his NPP were in power, their first in the country’s history when you do not trace back to their original beginning. Corruption rocked the Kufour-led government. Notable cases such as the premix fuel scandal involving former Central Regional Minister Isaac Edumadze and Richard Winfred Anane’s case did not receive an urgent response from the government to show that it was committed to fighting corruption in the country.
The president himself was accused by party chairman Haruna Esseku of receiving kickbacks from contractors and distributing contracts without transparency. The accusation allegedly led to the NPP forcing Haruna Esseku to skip the party’s Delegates Congress at the University of Ghana. Though it was denied by both the President and the then party Chairman that the said leaked tape existed, Daniel Batidam of the Ghana Integrity Initiative confirmed Raymond Archer’s story that the tape was real and its content cannot be doubted. So there was no proof accessible to the general public, the idea that a sitting president could be involved in something like that was disincentive to many voters.
Another powerful person in government, Alhaji Moctar Musah Bamba, a Deputy Minister for Presidential Affairs, was forced to resign after he was accused of forging the signatures of Ministers on letterheads originating from the seat of government. Other moves such as the efforts to take over the duties of the Electoral Commission and issue Voter ID cards were a red line the government crossed. Civil society groups and opposition parties resisted.
Based on the above examples of corruption, abuse of power and conflict of interest, Ghanaians had enough reasons to want change. There were other scandals including the BNI invasion of Prof. Evans Atta-Mills’ house while he was away and forcing his wife to write a statement. The government later issued an apology but the damage was done. Economic factors and water scarcity were also part of the issues that rocked that first NPP government and successfully courted it out of power.
NDC, Mahama and Dumsor
When the NDC took over in 2008, Ghanaians relaxed and placed trust in the new government. Under the leadership of Professor J. E. A Mills, the country recorded significant progress, achieving a single-digit inflation of 8.4%, the country’s best in 42 years. But during the party’s second term which started under John Mahama, they experienced one of the most embarrassing moments in government.
Intermittent power outages turned the nation’s anger against the government. Corruption allegations against government appointees with scandals such as the GH¢3.6 million Smarttys bus. Several notable corruption cases engulfed the government including the $175 million hospital project money used to pay for NDC re-election research, the GH¢33 million SADA tree planting scandal, the GH¢15 million guinea fowl scandal and the Airbus bribery scandal among others caused a breakdown in trust.
Though the government tried to purge itself from the scandals by incarcerating one of its appointees, Abuga Pele concerning the GYEEDA scandal and the dumsor problem, it was too late to win back voters. The party exited office with an embarrassing defeat to the opposition candidate Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo.
NPP under Akufo-Addo and Mahamudu Bawumia
Since January 2017, the NPP led by Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo and Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia has been running the affairs of the nation. They have highlighted key things such as infrastructure and their flagship programme, the Free SHS policy. Aside from that, one village one dam, one district one factory and one constituency $1 million have been championed by the government since day one.
Nation Builders Corps, the infamous employment scheme that ended up leaving most of its frustrated after they had to do protest and release press statements numerous times before they got all their allowances. A promise to transition them into full-time jobs and prioritize them in another youth-centred scheme – YouStart failed to the chagrin of the trainees.
While the government tried to appeal to the public by promising juicy things, a tactic the party used to win Ghanaians’ trust to win the 2016 election, they have failed in keeping up with the promises. Dams under the ‘One Village One Dam’ project dry even faster than the normal ponds found in most of the villages.
The flagship Free SHS has faced its own share of shortcomings. A double-track system was introduced to accommodate the numbers due to the dilution of the WAEC grading system that sieved students into the second-cycle institutions. No student who sits for the BECE exams these days fails, everyone goes to school regardless of their grades.
Outside of that, the second-cycle schools have been faced with problems such as feeding; well this may even be an age-old problem. But it worsened at some point and authorities in the schools cannot speak else they will be victimized. That dropped, and parents complained about the cost of textbooks and extra classes for their wards who now spend more time at home than school because of the double track.
Corruption always has a way of disgracing people. President Akufo-Addo came to power on the promise of being Mr. Incorruptible. Well, he may not be corrupt but his officials have got themselves in bad positions forcing the President to clear them and earn the name ‘Clearing Agent’.
Even during the party’s first four years beginning in January 2017, they had numerous corruption allegations. Notable among them are the infamous PDS scandal, BOST contaminated fuel, 500 missing galamsey excavators, the Public Procurement Authority contract for sale and the bloated COVID-19 food relief package among others.
However, the government successfully used Covid-19 as an excuse for the economic underperformance. The Russia-Ukraine war became another excuse soon after the war started and remained one of the three key excuses of the current regime. Number one is the erstwhile Mahama government’s supposed mess, followed by Covid-19 and then the Russia-Ukraine war, But Ghanaians have listened to enough of them.
After struggling to hold the economy together, the government finally ate its vomit and sought help from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Coupled with numerous taxes such as the much-criticized E-levy and others such as betting tax, digital advertising taxes and others, the government has still struggled to hold things down.
The Ghana Cedi at the time of writing was trading at GHS13.0666 to the United States dollar. Inflation is 25.8%, having risen to 54% in December 2022. Prices of goods have remained high and fuel prices have started going up once again, threatening every other sector.
The sins of the current government are as clear as crystal and desperation has surely set in, forcing the Vice President and flagbearer of the ruling party to start shifting blame away from his quarters by saying he was just a driver’s mate.
Despite the weaknesses of the NPP, the NDC cannot claim sainthood though their sins may have been 9 years old now and look less hurting compared to what Ghanaians are experiencing, the election may be a choice between two evils.
What influences voters’ choice?
There is no single thing that has constantly influenced Ghanaian voters. Times always come with different challenges. But one thing is common, Ghanaians seem to always have that fatigue every 8 years thus deciding to make a change.
However, based on the 2020 election results, the opposition parties appreciated the number of votes. Generally, the number of voters was more than the total voter population in 2016 so it was natural to witness an increment.
However, Ghanaians showed signs of already being fed up with the incumbent. Parliament was evened out with the incumbent requiring a prodigal son to obtain a slim majority in the house. In the presidential, the incumbent, represented by Nana Akufo-Addo earned 6,692,630 votes. That was 2.5% less than the margin achieved in 2016 though the numbers were higher than the 2016 votes 5,766,107.
Ex-President John Dramani Mahama, the leading opposition candidate obtained, 6,170,492 votes, a 2.6% gain from the previous results, of 4,788,724 votes. Importantly, that represented a 5.1% reduction in margin between the two main parties in the space of 4 years.
Ahead of the 2020 elections, the comparison was between Akufo-Addo and John Mahama. While the NPP campaigned that they needed four more years to deliver, the NDC campaigned on giving a tested person who has better results than the incumbent. The NDC campaigned on “expansion of economic freedom and opportunities by providing incentives for small businesses to grow, as well as, encourage local community development.” They promised to “build an environment for digital transformation and domestic manufacturing to support job creation.” The key message for the NDC was “Jobs, Prosperity and More”.
In the end, people trusted the incumbent and believed it had a point that if given four more years it would deliver. Victory was delivered but with a warning as the parliamentary seats were evenly shared.
Communication
Communication has been a key factor that influences the minds of voters. Just like the saying in marketing that a good product with bad marketing is worth less than a bad product with good marketing, it happens in politics.
Despite the well-defined scandals of the Mahama-led NDC administration, they did remarkable things, especially in infrastructure. However, even the NDC communicators could not capitalize on their Green Book to drum home their achievements. The eloquence of the NPP’s communicators led by their brilliant running mate, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, sent fear down the spines of NDC communicators.
As a result, the NDC looked like a KG pupil standing up against the Senior Prefect in Primary Six. The difference was clear as the Economics lectures by the Running Mate left NDC communicators chasing shadows.
In 2020, the NDC had the perfect chance to retaliate in the same measure but due to their porous communicators, they could not capitalize on scandals that were even more horrendous than what the NPP used against the NDC. For instance, when Martin Amidu stepped down as the Special Prosecutor and said he could not work with the ‘Mother Serpent of Corruption’, the NDC failed to use it. When the Cedi was dangling against the United States dollar and inflation skyrocketing, the NDC was not able to capitalize.
Ahead of the 2016 election, Bawumia went to Mallam Attah Market to compare prices of commodities. He earned the attention of market women and won the hearts of the ordinary who felt the heat of the economy. He said, “While I do not want to argue with or question the integrity of our hardworking officials at the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) who do a good job under very difficult circumstances and should, indeed, be resourced and given more independence to do the work they do, I would like to state that the available evidence indicates that statistically reported single-digit inflation is not consistent with the economic fundamentals and developments in some key economic indicators relating to the cost of living, interest rates and exchange rates.”
He added that “most people in Ghana cannot relate to the talk about single-digit inflation when they get to the market. I was at the Mallam Atta Market last week and it is clear that prices are increasing at a faster rate than what the official statistics may be capturing.”
Dr. Bawumia infamously stated in 2014 that “if the fundamentals are weak, the exchange rate will expose you.” However, when the NDC used it after the Cedi broke out of jail after Bawumia allegedly locked it and handed over the keys to the IGP, he shot it down saying it is warped logic to conclude a volatile exchange rate is due to weak fundamentals.
“When we see pressures on the exchange rate, first we need to determine where these pressures are coming from or whether the pressures are transitory or permanent. And as every astute central banker knows, even with strong economic fundamentals, speculation, expectation and investor sentiment can exert pressures on the exchange rate.
“Ladies and gentlemen, you will recall that I stated in 2014 that: ‘If the fundamentals are weak, the exchange rate will expose you’. That was true then and it’s true now. It is 100 per cent correct.
“But it is warped logic to jump from that to a conclusion that if there is depreciation in your currency, then the fundamentals must be weak. Do you understand the logic? If the fundamentals are weak, the exchange rate will expose you, but if the exchange rate moves, you cannot jump to that conclusion that the fundamentals are weak. That defies logic. There could be external factors causing the exchange rate depreciation,” he said in 2020.
He single-handedly made the NDC communicators look lost. Even in the midst of the Free SHS crumpling under a myriad of problems, the failure of the 1D1F, 1V1D and NABCo troubles among other top scandals, the NPP communication still outshone the NDC.
Additionally, the NPP was able to effectively plot a story that was interesting to tell in the media by painting the NDC as very corrupt and evil. However, when the tables turned, the NDC failed even with the media leading crusades against the government on corruption and galamsey. So smart communication is one key determinant of who people will vote for.
If you have a good product but sleep with it at home, no one will know. So they will buy the bad product that is painted as good and appealing to them. Thus, smart communication will be key in determining where swing voters will go to in 2024.
Quality of Life
Ghanaians are evolving and people are beginning to consider what is beneficial in the long-term over one day of merriment. While many voters will be deceived by bundles of cash, food items and other perishables a few weeks before the election, many decide based on what will keep them growing and benefit their quality of life. So people will choose to vote for policies that will see the reduction in fuel prices, and prices of goods and services and improve their income than ones that will give them one-off benefits.
NPP came into power in 2016 on the back of promises to move from taxation to production. However, it has moved from taxation to taxation promax, ensuring every sector is taxed even if the people are already paying taxes. Years after Covid-19, Ghanaians still pay Covid-19 recovery levy. The Minority in Parliament and civil society groups have been proactive in stopping the government impose certain levies such as the aborted baggage belt repairs levy.
The infamous E-levy, betting and lottery tax and Emission levy are among some of the taxes introduced by the government while a number of existing taxes such as the Communication Service Tax saw increment. These all have affected livelihood. While many Ghanaians know it is okay to pay tax, they are annoyed by the fact that the government has been wasting money. An example is the botched National Cathedral project which as drained the national coffers of Cedis running into hundreds of millions only to remain the most expensive galamsey pit ever seen in the country.
So voters will be looking out for a candidate who will assure them that their taxes won’t be wasted on unnecessary projects. At least if the money used for the National Cathedral were used to build CHPS compounds in rural communities or upgrade the facilities at some of the nation’s hospitals, people would be more receptive.
Protecting Ghanaian Values
While many Ghanaians may not openly condemn or support the anti-LGBTQ Bill or support or criticise LGBTQI+ activities, the ordinary Ghanaian is conservative. Morality remains a core component of Ghanaian society and will be for some time to come. The onset of the legislation to censure LGBTQI+ activities in the country created a divide. The top academics and some human rights lawyers said it was not right to punish a person for their choice of sexual life.
That is true, but they did not also explain how a population that does not give birth can keep increasing its numbers if not through recruitment. Many supported the bill and it has successfully been passed by Parliament. But the legal gymnastics at play pending the President’s decision has created a window of opportunity for political parties to play the blackmailing card. While the NDC flagbearer said long ago that he was against LGBTQI+, it was not until April that his main contender Dr. Bawumia made his stance known. With that settled, the LGBTQ card may play a less significant role though if the President refuses to sign it, it could be a punch hole for the NDC.
Strategically, the Supreme Court could aid the NPP by delaying its decision on the case until after the election. No one would blame the NPP for not signing the bill into law though they could still be tagged with it.
Unfulfilled Promises
Political parties rely on promises to win elections more than anything. So when a party promises and does not fulfil, then the likelihood that it will lose the trust of floating voters is very high. In 2016, the NPP under Akufo-Addo made numerous promises to Ghanaians. These included the promise to build factories in each of the 216 districts, to build 350 model Senior High Schools and to construct dams in each village in the Northern regions. They also promised a stable Cedi and stable fuel prices amongst others. The most prominent was the Free Senior High School education.
After seven years in government, many have a divided opinion on whether most of these have been fulfilled or not. Parents in the first few years were absolutely excited about the Free SHS initiative and commended the president but as the years passed problems began to generate. However, parents are paying huge sums of money to enrol their wards into vacation classes where they could make up for the many hours lost as a result of the double track system initiated by the government as a solution to the uncontrolled population of students entering the schools.
The programme was rolled out as a political promise without much thought about the infrastructure needs. That pushed the existing facilities to the brink, leading to the birth of the Double Track system. Many stakeholders raised concern about the short stay in school which they said does not enable the students to complete their syllabuses. The quality of food given to students also became a topic though the government has constantly denied the problems that the system faces.
With regards to the factories and dams promised to each district, according to data available currently, 76 of these factories have been established. The most notable among them is the Ekumfi Fruits and Juice Limited located in the Ekumfi-Abor district of the central region. This factory is prominent for the productions of healthy delicious fruit drinks all over the country. They also export to neighbouring countries. However, many other districts around the country are yet to receive their fair share of the national cake. In some villages where the dams were dug, they dried up immediately after the dry season set in as the dams were shallow while some lacked water sources to feed them.
Fighting Corruption
In 2016 as part of the promises of Nana Akufo-Addo made to Ghanaians, he vowed to tackle the ugly menace of corruption deeply rooted in the affairs of state. He promised to use the modus operandi of investigative journalist Anas Aremeyaw Anas to fish out corruption. He also promised to establish the Office of Special Prosecutor to handle such cases. Then in government, the National Anti-Corruption Action Plan was adopted to provide policies for dealing with corruption in the country. The government launched an evaluation again in 2021 to cater for the next 10 years in tracking corruption.
However, they always say charity begins at home but it seems the current government has been too fearful to start at home. Nearly every government official that was accused of corruption got away with the backing of the President. Ken Ofori-Atta the then finance minister and a relative of the President was accused of procedural error and conflict of interest in the issuance of $2.25 billion. The Minority in Parliament petitioned the United States Security and Exchange Commission to investigate Franklin Templeton over the bond. He was cleared by CHRAJ and a follow up law suit at the Supreme Court contesting CHRAJ decision was also dismissed by a unanimous decision.
The Cecilia Dapaah scandal also came but much later than the former Chief Executive Officer of the Public Procurement Authority, Adjenim Boateng Adjei’s involvement in the ‘Contract for Sale’ saga. Martin Amidu, the then Special Prosecutor slapped him with 18 charges. Amidu, however, did not last in office as he later resigned with strong words that he could not work with the ‘Mother Serpent of Corruption’.
Former Auditor-General, Daniel Yao Domelevo was also forced out of office after he surcharged the then Senior Minister Yaw Osafo-Maafo over the $1 million Kroll scandal. Mr. Domelevo who was investigating the matter was forced out of office for being overage despite SSNIT documents proving otherwise.
These among others would cast credibility on the NPP’s ability to continue to fight corruption, the nation’s biggest threat by distance.
In conclusion, as Ghanaians go to polls in December, there will be many factors that will influence their decisions. As noted above, a strong attitude against corruption, unfulfilled promises and quality of life experienced through jobs, business growth, strong economic performance and prudent use of national resources for the general good would stand out. But these would be influenced also by how a party is able to market its message, works and ideas. The NPP has often played the upper hand in communication and observers would be keen to see if that happens again.
Though the automatic 8-year reshuffle we have experienced in the past could also play, it often happens based on some of the above factors. The day an incumbent is able to deliver well in the key areas mentioned above, Ghanaians will not be fatigued and would love to give that government a chance to continue.
The NPP has dreamt of breaking the 8 though the prices of fuel and the exchange rate did it before them. We are looking to see if Ghanaians will endorse their performance or go for former President John Mahama who has promised to be the saviour. There are also outside chances for a new force with the emergence of the union between Alan Kyeremanten and Abu Sakara likely to have an impact. Businessman Nana Kwame Bediako has also been busy with The New Force, maybe it could actually be the real new force. That is all up to the work each party or group will do between now and December 7 2024.